I came across a great blog the other day and wanted to share it with everyone. With the Presidential election 12 days away, I wish I’d found this earlier… BUT, this is the most exciting time to visit a blog like this.
It’s called FiveThirtyEight.com – the Five Thiry Eight stands for the number of electors in the Electoral College.
I’m a big believer in numbers and the use of statistical analyses and simulations to achieve the most objective view possible – and the writers of FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver and Sean Quinn do just that.
This blog is a perfect illustration of the benefits of Web 2.0. Now, citizens have access to data and for those who are intersted and capable in doing so, they can use the data to develop and objective assessment. They know exactly where the information is coming from, how it’s being used and the best part – they can share it with the world.
In the spirit of transparency and to prove that their blog provides a well-informed, trust-worthy view the authors offer full disclosure; providing their names, explaining their day jobs, even going as far as stating who they support. However, the key is that they also disclose, as clearly as possible, their methodology for the results on their page.
Here is the process overview on their FAQ page:
Process Overview
The basic process for computing our Presidential projections consists of six steps:
1. Polling Average: Aggregate polling data, and weight it according to our reliability scores.
2. Trend Adjustment: Adjust the polling data for current trends.
3. Regression: Analyze demographic data in each state by means of regression analysis.
4. Snapshot: Combine the polling data with the regression analysis to produce an electoral snapshot. This is our estimate of what would happen if the election were held today.
5. Projection: Translate the snapshot into a projection of what will happen in November, by allocating out undecided voters and applying a discount to current polling leads based on historical trends.
6. Simulation: Simulate our results 10,000 times based on the results of the projection to account for the uncertainty in our estimates. The end result is a robust probabilistic assessment of what will happen in each state as well as in the nation as a whole.
I encourage you all to go take a look and determine for yourselves how accurate these predictions are. I know this is a blog I’ll be visiting daily.